The “Surge” That Never Happened
By Don Rosenberg 7/6/2020
We are being bombarded with frantic reports that there is a “surge in cases” or a “spike in cases,” with calls to “pull the emergency break” on our efforts to reopen the country.
But death rates have dropped considerably, despite this new “surge.”
April 27,2020 was the deadliest day for coronavirus in the U.S. (2,352) Reported cases were 29,625, but we should really go back ten days – 29,679, because, on average, it takes that amount of time for a reported case to lead to death. Contrast that with July 5th with 683 deaths, and 29,850 reported cases ten days earlier.
In April, 7.92% of reported cases lead to deaths, but now only 2.28% of cases lead to death. That’s 1,682 or 71% fewer deaths than we might expect.
Science Alert came out today with an article discussing the lack of deaths and gamely trying to explain why there’s still a reason to panic…
The nationwide percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive is rising, says the article. And the percentage of those testing positive is going up. They go on to say…
But even if higher case counts don’t bring a proportional surge in deaths, there is still reason for alarm. The IHME model projects that the US will see nearly 50,000 new coronavirus deaths from July to October 1…
Put another way, the model expects the US to see 500 or more people die of COVID-19 every day for the next three months, on average…
Currently, more than 128,000 people have been killed by COVID-19 in the US, so the additional projected deaths represent a nearly 40 percent increase. These deaths are expected to arrive as other countries’ daily cases and deaths continue to drop precipitously.
And if that wasn’t concerning enough, there’s still a strong possibility that coronavirus deaths will rise in the near future.
“No one wants to say too early that deaths are not rising. That would really be a mistake,” Howard Koh, a professor at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.
Oh, and hospitalizations are on the rise, too.
So why is there such a big difference between the reported cases and actual deaths?
Yes, we’re getting better at treating the disease, and Cuomo from New York is no longer shipping COVID-19 cases to nursing homes, but there’s more to it than that.
In a recent article, I reported that new CDC guidelines are telling state health departments to record almost any trip to the hospital as a “probable” COVID-19 case. For example, if you live in an area with a rise in cases, and you have a fever or headache, your case is “probably COVID-19,” and that gets reported to the CDC, even if you weren’t tested.
In April, the CDC announced that “probable” cases are now considered actual cases.
So why are the number of positives and percentage of positives going up?
We are seeing stories from across the country that people are being tested multiple times until they get a positive. Others who have recovered from COVID-19 need tests to show they are cured. Each re-test is counted as a new case.
Originally, testing kits were scarce, so people were only tested if they were hospitalized. Others with symptoms were told to go home. Now, more testing is being done on milder cases, and on people who were traced to be anywhere near someone who tested positive. Those mild and asymptomatic cases are now showing up as positives.
Finally, we are hearing that private labs doing tests are no longer reporting negative results, just the positive ones. If a lab does 100 tests and 4% are positive, only 4 positive results are reported, not the 96 negative ones.
So if we’re getting 71% fewer deaths than we expect, it’s probably because we’re getting 71% over-counted cases.
Why are COVID-19 hospitalizations on the rise, if the tests are being “doctored?”
Since the real COVID-19 cases are going down, many hospitals are admitting the backlog of “non-essential” patients, who need unrelated tests and surgeries. All of these new admittances are being tested for COVID-19 and, since many people have gotten COVID-19 with no symptoms, they show exposure. These COVID-19 positive patients are being counted as new COVID-19 hospital admissions.
Finally, the death rate is lower, but is that being overstated as well, to continue the panic and justify going back to lockdowns?
In another article, I discuss that the CDC also changed their rules for reporting cause of death. A case of someone who died with COVID-19 is now being reported as dying from COVID-19. So someone dying from a heart attack, but no COVID-19 symptoms, is now reported as a new COVID-19 death. This is totally outside the norms of completing death certificates.
June 15th was when the new “spike” started, but deaths, even 10 days later, continued to decline. So they’re “doctoring” the tests, and probably inflating the deaths as well.
Why would they do this?
It’s all about the election in November. Make Trump look bad, depress the economy, scare people from going outside their houses, and push “mail-in” voting. My article details this as well.
I can’t imagine anything more despicable than terrifying the American people, costing millions of people to lose their jobs, and keeping millions of people from getting “non-essential” medical attention, just to win an election.